Forecast: Nepal's economic outlook for 2026 presents a mix of forecasts from major international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Asian Development Bank (ADB). These forecasts reflect a blend of optimism regarding structural resilience and concerns over ongoing political and social instability. The ADB projected a 5.1% GDP growth for 2026 in April 2025, driven by the revival of tourism and improved agricultural productivity. However, the World Bank later forecasted a 2.1% GDP growth for 2026 in November 2025, indicating a significant slowdown due to political unrest and weakened investor confidence. The IMF projected moderate GDP growth continuing the recovery around 4.3 to 4.5%. The economic recovery is stabilizing but faces challenges due to a complex domestic environment and global uncertainty. Underlying Reasons: The divergent predictions stem from various factors. The unexpected youth movement, known as the "Gen Z uprising,...
Nepal faces a multitude of challenges in transitioning into a developing nation. These obstacles include political, economic, social, infrastructural, and environmental issues that hinder its graduation from the category of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Let's discuss a few key vulnerabilities that Nepal needs to address in order to advance towards becoming a middle-income economy. Economic Vulnerabilities and Structural Weaknesses of Nepal 1. Agricultural Dependency: The country's economy is largely dependent on agriculture, which is susceptible to natural disasters such as floods, droughts, and earthquakes. The reliance on subsistence agriculture exposes a large portion of the population to climate risks, low productivity, and limited market access. 2. Remittance Reliance: Nepal heavily relies on remittances from its citizens working abroad, which makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global economic conditions and policies. Remittances from Nepali workers abroad...